Municipal Finance


9
Apr 10

Above the Law: Too Big to Jail

By and large compliance with the law is voluntary.  Every crime cannot be prosecuted.  In an ethical business culture companies and individuals believe compliance is the right thing to do.  For those who lack a moral compass, the fear factor of imprisonment, fines and social obloquy do the trick.  But now companies display a disturbing cynicism toward legal compliance.

The notion of “Too Big to Fail” is no longer new.  Unfortunately, we are creating a new concept: “Too Big to Jail.”

Pfizer

  • CNN reports in Feds Find Pfizer too Big to Nail that Pfizer illegally marketed Bextra, a painkiller. The FBI conducted a criminal investigation and with much fanfare announced the appropriateness of a Pfizer indictment; i.e., fully prosecuting Pfizer would send a clear directive for tough law enforcement.  But the government did not try Pfizer, and instead settled.  The company agreed to pay a large fine, $1.2 billion dollars, and entered into a special reporting and compliance program.  The government did not seek the ultimate penalty of prohibiting (debarring) Pfizer from participating in Medicare and Medicaid programs.  Prosecutors reasoned:

that excluding Pfizer would most likely lead to Pfizer’s collapse, with collateral consequences: disrupting the flow of Pfizer products to Medicare and Medicaid recipients, causing the loss of jobs including those of Pfizer employees who were not involved in the fraud, and causing significant losses for Pfizer shareholders.

Thus, to avoid debarment, an agreement was reached between a shell subsidiary of Pfizer, which was created for the sole purpose of paying fines and the government.  One federal prosecutor questioned whether even a $1.2b penalty was enough to punish Pfizer.

JP Morgan Chase

To finance a sewer upgrade project Jefferson County (Birmingham), Alabama, entered into a series of financial transactions with a division of JP Morgan Chase.  JP Morgan advised the county to move from a fixed rate mortgage to a variable rate mortgage. JPMC then created complex synthetic derivative rate swaps to match cash flows between payments to bondholders and payments it was to receive from the bank for the interest rate swaps.  In 2008, these deals blew up. The county was then required to pay a major part of the project in 4 years instead of 40 years, and a $647m one time penalty fee. The county’s annual payments jumped from $53m to $636m.

In addition to the poor financial advice which has nearly bankrupted the county, federal bribery convictions were obtained against twenty officials and businessmen.  However, so far, JP Morgan Chase has not been indicted. Rather, it has faced an SEC action and been required to forgo collecting the $647m one time penalty. See Mike Taibbi’s excellent article and chronology Looting Main Street.

As with Pfizer, JPMC avoided indictment for reasons that are clearly expedient rather than ethical.  Karl Denninger on Market Ticker explains:

JP Morgan is the firm that handles the Federal Government’s food stamp program – by creating debit accounts so that there is no “stigma” associated with public assistance.  They issue what look like generic debit cards and of course collect a fee when they’re used, as well as a maintenance charge….

JP Morgan would have a hell of a time justifying the retention of their lucrative food stamp business were they to be charged and convicted of criminal fraud in the Jefferson County case.  See Greenspan’s Delusions Deepen

Reeling in the Small Fish

The government seems to be allergic to indicting and fully prosecuting the worst perpetrators of financial fraud.  For over two years Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide, the ground zero of shoddy mortgage practices, has been investigated without an indictment.

Instead we have been treated to insider trading cases involving Martha Stewart and Samuel Waksal in the Imclone insider trading case and Robert Moffat, an ex-IBM executive who fed inside information to the Galleon Group hedge fund.  Bernie Madoff was convicted only because he confessed to the crimes.  The SEC ignored evidence of his criminal fraud and indeed has been embarrassed by the revelations brought to light in the case.

The Unbalanced Criminal Justice System

A standard not written into the law is the preservation of a corporation deemed systemically important to the society as a whole.  As a result, the criminal justice system has treated the large corporate offender with kid gloves.  However, we now know that fraud was part and parcel of the current financial crisis.  And as Karl Denninger has opined, the system will not recover until we clear it of corporate corruption.  So, how to approach this ethical Catch 22 that may keep us in crisis for the foreseeable future?

President Obama is an attorney who is well aware of the disproportionate sentences meted out to accused and convicted minorities.  He was also a constitutional law professor who understood the need for equality under the law.  Yet more than two years into the financial crisis we have yet to indict, try and convict any “too big to jail” institutions.  Continuing this inequity will only convince Americans that there are two sets of laws, one for favored institutions and individuals and another for the rest of us.

No one should be above the law.

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16
Mar 10

The Failure of Extrapolation

The human mind loves linear extrapolation over time.  We build 5-year plans.  Graphically, five-year plans look like hockey sticks: first, slow and minuscule income, revenue growth in the first year, and then spectacular growth by the fifth year.  I have sat through a dizzying number of presentations for start up businesses which rarely, if ever, achieve their predicted spectacular growth.  For every Apple or Google there is a Pets.com and bankruptcy. ­­­ However, hope springs eternal.

Rosy Scenario and Her Evil Twin

Investment analysts, CEOs and government officials constantly project questionable positivity.  Prosperity is always around the corner, green shoots of recovery are everywhere, and a chicken will appear in every pot.  We pillory realistic if negative analysts as pessimistic naysayers, prophets of doom or worse.  But we ignore reality at our peril. More often than not Rosy Scenario often clashes with her evil twin Dashed Expectation.  The results are often calamitous.

Ignoring Reality

The last decade has brought ignoring reality to a high art form.  Linear extrapolation has brought the following prophesies:

  • Dow 36,000
  • Internet businesses with no customers and unrealistic business plans worth several times the value of established companies (IBM, DuPont)
  • Ever-rising housing prices
  • The FIRE economy (Financial, Insurance, Real Estate) supporting the entire American economy
  • Sustained non-problematic leverage ratios of 30 and 40:1
  • Debt growth several standard deviations greater than GDP
  • Counterparties to derivative contracts always making good
  • Never defaulting on sovereign debt
  • Pension fund assets always earning between 7-9%
  • Federal debt growing faster than tax receipts
  • Public sector wages growing faster than GDP and tax receipts
  • Aggressive accounting (Enron, Lehman) considered good financial engineering
  • Zero interest rates restoring economic prosperity.

Past is Not Always Prologue

We are prisoners of our past experiences.  We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the economy to magically recover.  We are surprised when the nominal unemployment rate is at 9.7% and the actual is 17%.   We are surprised when Wall Street bonuses soar and Main Street suffers.  We are surprised when Moody’s threatens to downgrade US debt from AAA rating. See Moody’s Says U.S. Debt Could Test Triple-A Rating

Rarely do we say that this time is different.   As a society, we have incurred debt far exceeding our capacity to repay.  Balance sheet recessions/depressions are far worse than previous inventory recessions.  Just as the Vietnamese fooled our World War II trained generals, the Federal Reserve and Administration are intent on fighting an outdated economic war.

It is time for some nonlinear thinking.  Instead of posturing, Congress should be asking Ben Bernanke for a Plan B.  Averting financial Armageddon is not enough.  JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, projected a banking crisis every five to seven years.  See Elizabeth Warren Exposes Jamie Dimon. As a society we can ill afford another year like 2008.  Reality is gaining on us.

How well did the five-year plans work out for the brittle Soviet system?   Is it time to ditch Rosy Scenario and deal with reality?

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12
Mar 10

Gambling on the Movies

Have we lost our minds? In its laudatory and typically breathless CNBC-style, the New York Times informs us of the latest “financial innovation,” movie futures:

Think that this spring’s “Robin Hood” movie will be a blockbuster at the box office? Next week you will be able to put your money on it.

Cantor Futures Exchange, a subsidiary of Cantor Fitzgerald, expects to open an online futures market next month that will allow studios, institutions and moviegoers to place bets on the box-office revenue of Hollywood’s biggest releases. Last week, the company learned from regulators that customers could start putting money into their accounts on March 15.

“I’ve worked in the futures industry for a long time,” said Richard Jaycobs, the president of Cantor Exchange, who has worked with derivative markets and the cotton exchange. “And none of the products has the overall appeal that this does. This just has a tremendous potential audience.”  See A Place to Bet Real Money on Movies

Mr. Jaycobs hopes to attract professional and institutional investors and is awaiting regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Predictably, we will also be able to short a movie, and gamble on its failure.

Investing or Gambling?

The financial crisis has laid bare the “casino” nature of modern capitalism.  We have bet on everything from the failure of the housing market to the collapse of nation-states.  But movie futures from an investment banking firm?

Somehow the movie industry survived from Edison’s first motion picture in 1889 to the twenty-first century without a futures exchange.  The Times should have asked important questions: why do we now need a movie futures exchange?  Should the average investor be permitted to speculate in movie futures?   Is this truly investing, speculating or outright gambling?

“The Producers”

In an iconic and wildly funny movie, Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder brought us the ultimate Ponzi scheme.  Create a truly terrible and tasteless show, sell shares adding to many times the show’s purported cost by romancing amorous little old ladies to part with their savings, then close the show and pocket the excess cash. But in a twist worthy of O’Henry, the show is so bad it’s a hit.  And our two financial gigolos end up in jail, pondering their bad luck and ignorance.

Selling movie futures allows clever Hollywood executives to profit on terrible movies.  As anyone who spends time at the local multiplex knows, there are plenty of bad movies to go around. Soon the “Ten Worst Movies of the Year” could be a source of pride and profit.  Or someone’s pension source?  Where is the societal benefit?

The Financialized Economy

In The Mirage of a Financialized Economy, we pointed out the societal dangers of over focusing on things financial.  Where our best and brightest should be working on new medicines, alternative energy sources or great achievements in art and culture, they are creating movie futures.

We have also become a gambling economy.  When we are not being bombarded by ads for E-Trade, gold purchases or Bank of America, we are seduced into playing state lotteries, visiting Foxwoods or Las Vegas.  To enhance revenue and climb out of their financial pits, states have become willing participants in this folly.  And as we know, when the imprimatur of government involvement enters the scene, it is ever more difficult to discern the more from the less worthy enterprise.

Where are the advocates for unambiguously productive or worthy or timeless enterprises?  And where are the marketers and sales forces who can convince us to invest in them? I wouldn’t bet on finding them anytime soon.

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10
Mar 10

Can We Afford Our Criminal Justice System?

Based on 2007 data, the United States has 7.3 million (up from 2.4 million in 1982) in jail or prison, paroled or on probation. That is, 1 in 31 adults, compared to an earlier 1 in 77.  With the ongoing financial crisis, desperate state and local politicians are looking for any means to reduce these costs, including early release.  A recent New York Times article, Safety is Issue as Budget Cuts Free Prisoners, highlights the dilemma:

In the rush to save money in grim budgetary times, states nationwide have trimmed their prison populations by expanding parole programs and early releases. But the result — more convicted felons on the streets, not behind bars — has unleashed a backlash, and state officials now find themselves trying to maneuver between saving money and maintaining the public’s sense of safety.

One result: many of the newly released prisoners commit crimes!  How do we keep society safe against the growing cost of incarcerating the bad guys?

The State and Local Financial Crisis

In Where Are We Now? we discussed the budget deficits in 48 of 50 states, while all states but Vermont require them to be balanced.  The situation has deteriorated.  Michael Shedlock (“Mish”) has chronicled these massive budget problems and some state and local responses:

- Illinois – “The state is in utter crisis,” said Representative Suzie Bassi. “We are next to bankruptcy. We have a $13bn hole in a $28bn budget.”The state has been paying bills with unfunded vouchers since October. A fifth of buses have stopped. Libraries, owed $400m (£263m), are closing one day a week. Schools are owed $725m. Unable to pay teachers, they are preparing mass lay-offs. “It’s a catastrophe”, said the Schools Superintendent. See Rep. Suzie Bassi: “Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget

-   New Jersey – Newly elected Governor Chris Christie found that: In the time we got here, of the approximately $29 billion budget there was only $14 billion left. Of the $14 billion, $8 billion could not be touched because of contracts with public worker unions, because of bond covenants, because of commitments we made accepting stimulus money. So we had to find a way to save $2.3 billion in a $6 billion pool of money.

When I went into the treasurer’s off in the first two weeks of my term, there was no happy meetings. They presented me with 378 possible freezes and lapses to be able to balance the budget. I accepted 375 of them. See Governor Christie: “Time to Hold Hands and Jump Off the Cliff” – Chris Christie For President?

-   California – Last year the state assured markets that it had solved its budget problem.  To meet deficits and cash shortages, the state treasurer is contemplating creditors in state IOUs, delaying payments to school programs and demanding that 80% of state tax be paid before it is earned. See California Delays Payments, Ponders IOUs Again, Demands 80% of Income Tax Paid Before It’s Even Earned

The Prison Industrial Complex

In his 1961 farewell address, President Eisenhower warned Americans against the military industrial complex.  We have created a “prison industrial complex,” with its expensive, unmanageable system of incarceration and monitoring.  One Connecticut study showed an average annual cost of $44k per prisoner.  Public sector unions with high salaries, generous overtime, defined benefit pension plans and retiree health care benefits are hugely expensive, and prison staffs are heavily unionized.

A Way Out

We have suggested in the past that government needs radical reengineering.  See Why Not Reengineer Government? Overhauling the criminal justice system should be a part of that effort. And there are possible solutions:

  • Privatize prisons.
  • Decriminalize certain offenses such as illegal drugs and gambling.
  • Non-violent criminals should pay financial penalties, be confined to their homes, placed in half-way houses or paroled immediately.
  • Community service programs should be re-thought to make best use of talents and skills of otherwise imprisoned citizens.
  • Shorten prison sentences for all but the most violent felons.

Our criminal justice system has mushroomed with little regard to the financial costs to taxpayers. We have over-criminalized non-violent behaviors to all our detriment.  A reform in that system can pay both societal dividends, fewer citizens locked up and a financial dividend, lower taxes.  Perhaps this is one silver lining from the financial crisis.

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